Saturday, August 29, 2015

Trump reaches new high in latest Reuters Ipsos poll, 20 points higher than nearest competitor. August 22-26, 2015 (Sat.-Wed.) poll, Jeb Bush ranks 4th

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8/28/15, "Ipsos/Reuters Poll (August 28): Core Political Approval," ipsos-na.com

"Donald Trump continues to hold a clear lead in the Republican primary, with support from 30% of Republicans in our tracking poll this is a new high for “the Donald” and 20 points higher than the next Republican. The top 4 Republicans (with Republican voters) are: 1) Trump; 2) Huckabee; 3) Carson; 4) Bush."...

Trump 30
Huckabee 10
Carson 8
Bush 7
Cruz 5
Fiorina 5
Paul 5
Rubio 5
Walker 5

Trump also leads among Independents, the only Republican in double digits (page 7):

Trump 30

Topline Results 

"These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters August 22-26, 2015. For the survey, a sample of 1,152 Americans, including 455 Democrats, 415 Republicans, and 155 Independents ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for all adults, 5.2 percentage points for Democrats, 5.5 percentage points for Republicans, and 9.0 percentage points for Independents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
 
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/."




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Friday, August 28, 2015

Pathetic Jeb Bush tells media he 'thought you guys would, you know, unite,' surprised not more backlash by reporters about Jorge Ramos being taught he had to wait in line like everyone else

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8/26/15, "Bush hits Trump over Univision controversy," CNN, Ashley Killough, Pensacola, Fla., via kxly.com

"Bush...was asked by journalists after his town hall to more specifically address Trump's encounter with Ramos. 
....... 
"I think people in the press ought to be treated with a little more respect and dignity," Bush said. "How about that?"
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He added that he was surprised that he didn't see many reporters pushing back against Trump at the time of the battle between the real estate titan and Ramos.
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"I didn't see a whole lot of like people in the press saying, 'Woah, woah time out, wait a second,'" he continued. "I thought you guys would, you know, unite.""...via Michael Savage



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In nationwide poll Trump beats Bush in 'strong leadership qualities' 84% to 68% among Republicans, 71% to 57% among independents-Quinnipiac Poll, Aug. 20-25, 2015

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Poll dates: Thurs-Tues, Aug. 20-25, 2015. Trump up 8 points since July 30. In 'strong leadership qualities' Trump beats Bush 84% to 68% among Republicans, 71% to 57% among Independents.
 
8/27/15, "Biden Runs Better Than Clinton Against Top Republicans, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump GOP Lead Grows As Clinton Dem Lead Shrinks," quinnipiac.edu

"Donald Trump leads the crowded Republican pack with 28 percent, up from 20 percent in a July 30 national survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is the highest tally and widest margin for any Republican so far in this election. Ben Carson has 12 percent, with 7 percent each for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. No other Republican tops 6 percent and 11 percent are undecided....

If Republican primary were held today for whom would you vote?

Trump 28
Carson 12
Bush 7
Cruz 7
Rubio 7
Walker 6
Kasich 5
Fiorina 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 2

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Trump leads in all 7 categories polled: Very conservative, Somewhat conservative, Liberal, Men, Women, Tea Party, White Born Again Evangelical

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In "strong leadership qualities," Trump beats Bush 84% to 68% among Republicans, 71% to 57% among Independents:

Question 60, "Would you say Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not?"...

"Yes:" Republicans 84%, Independents 71%, Men 68%, Women 60%, Whites 69%, Blacks 48%, Hispanics, 48%

Question 62, "Would you say Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not?"

"Yes:" Republicans 68%, Independents 57%, Men 55%, Women 53%

Poll provides no racial data on Bush as it did for Trump above, ie, white, black, hispanic.

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"From August 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,563 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 666 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 647 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points....Sample and Methodology detail."...



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Thursday, August 27, 2015

Rush Limbaugh: What's driving Trump supporters is love for this country and optimism about real change. They're shocked and stunned that so many elected officials don't seem to hear them. They have every right to be angry but that's not what drives them to Trump

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8/26/15, "People Have Every Right to Be Angry About What's Being Done to Their Country, But Anger Doesn't Explain the Trumpsters," Rush Limbaugh

"Let me expand on a theme here, the idea that Trump's followers are not comprised of anger--at least that's not the animating aspect of them.  And yet all of these people in the establishments of both parties -- the elites, the consultants, the so-called political science experts at universities, the punditry -- have these formulas to explain human behavior in the political sphere. And "anger" is at the top of the list. If you want to discredit a group of voters, if you want to impugn them, you just accuse them of being "angry." And if you really, really want to rip 'em, you call 'em "angry" and "white."  I've been dealing with this angry-white-men BS since 1990.

It's further illustration of just how dense and insulated and ignorant these experts are in understanding, in this case, the supporters of Donald Trump. These people are not angry. Well, they're angry. I mean, it...I think, in fact, folks, we're all entitled to our anger here. If we aren't angry about...Are you angry about what's happened at Planned Parenthood? You damn well should be! Anger is a legitimate reaction to certain things. But it is not, in this case, the energy. It's not the animating thing. It's not the reason that Trump has supporters. It's not because people looking for a way to express their anger and be done with it. It's far more than that."...

[Ed. note: "Anger" was considered perfectly fine and normal in 2008 when it was said to be the reason for electing Obama: "Unerring faith in the premise of the Obama candidacy that many Americans are angry, anxious, and engaged as never before." 7/20/2008, "Obama's paid staff dwarfing McCain's," Boston Globe, Brian C. Mooney]
 
(continuing): "Now, back to the Trump supporter. Well, story, for lack of a better word.  It's starting to happen again.  It's all being chalked up to anger, just like angry white men was a way to impugn Republican support back in the early nineties, and it's been used interchangeably with soccer moms and the War on Women, and, you name it, angry white men. And my contention to you is that Trump supporters are not negative. They're not angry.  I mean, that's not their state of mind. They are legitimately angry, I mean, wouldn't you be? If you have kids and grandkids, are you not angry over what's been done to their future? Are you not angry over what's been done to this economy? 

Stop and think of something here for a second, folks. Stock market. Five trillion was printed by the Federal Reserve. It was called quantitative easing, and it all ended up on Wall Street for the purchase of securities. Interest rates were kept low. So while Main Street and the rest of this economy was just plundering along at a no-growth, static rate, Wall Street is going crazy, new wealth is being created, but not because of any reason other than the Federal Reserve pumping $5 trillion into it.  Okay, so now after this crash that has occurred over the past week, almost, just a little over a third of that $5 trillion on paper is gone, just wiped out. 

Now, can you imagine what would have happened if they had decided to put $5 trillion that they printed on Main Street? Can you imagine what might have happened? I'll guarantee you that there are a lot of smart middle-class people in this country who know full well what's going on.  They have every right to be mad about it. They have gone to the polls and they have voted for people who they believed were gonna help them stop this. They have voted for people who told them that they were this going to stop it. They were gonna do their best to repeal Obamacare, for example. They were gonna do their best to make sure that there wasn't any more damage done to the United States economy via Obama policy.

They were promised by people campaigning for office that they were gonna go to Washington and do everything they could to save this country as founded, and they haven't done it. Wouldn't you be mad?  The anger is not illegitimate. But my point is, it's not what's driving this.  What's driving this ultimately is love. What's driving the support for Trump is love. It is optimism and it is positive. It is real hope that there might be a chance for real change, not just sloganeering. These are people who believe in the greatness of America. These are people who want it returned.

These are people who believe that it is possible to recapture some of the great traditions and institutions that made this country great. They are shocked and stunned that so many elected officials don't seem to hear them, are not even interested in that themselves. But here come the predictable catcalls. "Well, you know, it's just a bunch of anger being fed by Rush Limbaugh and Fox News. It's anger populism." These elites that think they're smarter than everybody else continue to misunderstand this, because they're plugging everything in in their phony formulas or their incorrect formulas that they use to try to calm themselves or mollify themselves or explain all this to themselves, because right now they can't explain....

So it's a natural protective circle the wagons kind of thing the establishment's doing. In the process, what they always do, when something happens like this they don't understand, they blame all of it on stupidity and anger on the part of their own voters. It ends up their own voters are stupid and mad and they run around and they actually say so.  Now, why they think down the road sometime these voters are gonna change their mind and leave Trump or whoever and come back to them after they've been insulted this way makes no sense to me. It makes no common sense. And, no, don't misunderstand, I'm not sitting here endorsing anything. Hey, I've got my Journalism 101 cap. I'm America's Real Anchorman here. I'm just analyzing this as I see it, objectively as I can from afar....And I have countless years experience guided by my intelligence to be able to understand why Trump is resonating and why he's growing."... 

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Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Looking at Donald Trump focus group numbers, Frank Luntz says, 'Honestly my legs are shaking,' Trump may be 'impossible to take down...He's not going away.'-NJ Advance Media

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8/25/15, "Trump may be 'impossible to take down,' top Republican pollster says," New Jersey Advance Media, Claude Brodesser-Akner, for NJ.com

ALEXANDRIA, Va.. "A new focus group commissioned by GOP pollster Frank Luntz shows Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump is virtually invulnerable to attack by rival 2016 candidates and the media, leading Luntz to say that it is now "totally conceivable" that Trump will become the Republican Party's nominee for president....

"This is a different cat," Luntz added. "It's not like Ross Perot in 1992, where people were simply unhappy with the two major parties; they're choosing Trump affirmatively. Honestly, my legs are shaking looking at these numbers. All those people who think he's going to implode are wrong. He's not going away."

Assembled in a room behind mirrored glass in an Alexandria, Va. office building, 29 current and former Trump supporters held forth on what they like and dislike about the controversial real estate tycoon, who owns three New Jersey golf courses and once owned three Atlantic City casinos.

Most notably, the intensity of the group's support for Trump was matched only by their dislike of establishment GOP candidates and politics as usual. At one point, a woman named Rhiannon explained her support of Trump by lamenting that "it appears that there's only one party." A whopping 25 of 29 participants in the focus group immediately and heartily agreed with her.

"Nobody is listening to us," echoed another supporter identified only as 'Suzanne.' "
(But) he's listening to us, he knows what we think and he's successful just like we want to be.""...via Free Rep.



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Anger was fine in 2008, media had no problem that Obama campaign focused anger of many Americans as springboard to victory-Boston Globe, July 20, 2008

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July 2008 article:

7/20/2008, "Obama's paid staff dwarfing McCain's," Boston Globe, Brian C. Mooney

(parag. 14): "Obama's campaign is optimistic it can reach its lofty targets because it achieved ambitious goals in its long, brutal fight to upset Hillary Clinton and win the Democratic nomination. Underlying the optimism is an unerring faith in the premise of the Obama candidacy that many Americans are angry, anxious, and engaged as never before in the political process because they want change....

His campaign already has by far the largest full-time paid staff in presidential campaign history, and unlike Republican rival John McCain's, continues to grow by the day....

Under Obama, the state party operations, which traditionally have been called victory committees or coordinated campaigns, have been renamed in each state as the "Campaign for Change."

"The climate has made millions of Americans who haven't been involved in a political campaign ever in their lifetimes very active," Hildebrand said. "We estimate that 70 percent of our grass-roots volunteers haven't worked in a campaign before....We're somewhere just shy of 2 million volunteers, and we think we can potentially triple that on Election Day."

That would mean 6 million volunteers. For comparison, about 116 million people voted in the 2004 presidential election.

The Obama-Clinton battle set primary turnout records in state after state, and Hildebrand expects more of the same in November....

To accomplish that, Obama's campaign is assembling what would be the largest field operation in the history of American politics. Advertising and campaign communications will be important and debate performances will be critical, but the Obama campaign is investing heavily in the importance of organizing voters and getting them to the polls on Nov. 4....

As of May 31, the Obama campaign staff was...nearly three times the size of McCain's current staff, and has expanded significantly since.

Through the end of May, the Obama campaign had spent $35.7 million on salaries and benefits, triple the $11.9 million spent by the McCain campaign, according to tabulations by the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group."...
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Trump triples Jeb Bush in latest national Gravis poll. Trump 40.1, Bush 10. August 21-22, 2015, random national survey of 3567 registered voters

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Poll dates 8/21-8/22/15.

8/25/15, "Trump breaks new Ceiling in National GOP Poll," One America News Network, press release

"One America News Network, “OAN”, a credible source for 24/7 national and international news, released today its most recent 2016 Republican Presidential National Poll results conducted by Gravis Marketing. One America News Network’s latest national poll shows some amazing results for political outsider Donald Trump.


The New York real estate mogul has surged 30% above his pre-debate first place poll finish of 30.8% (as reported by OAN on July 31st) soaring to a new high of 40.1%. Dr. Ben Carson, who won the GOP first debate as reported by OAN per its post-debate national poll results, has moved into second with 13.0%. Jeb Bush dropped 3.3% to 10.0%, landing the former Florida Governor in third place. Rounding out the top five and capturing a higher percentage of the GOP poll vote is Ted Cruz at 7.0% and Carly Fiorina with 5.2%. Fiorina has the biggest ranking jump moving from a previous 12th place, non-main stage debate position, into the top five....

According to Robert Herring, Sr., CEO of One America News Network, “It’s surprising to see how fast Donald Trump has moved up in the polls since the debate. Claims by media that Trump peaked in July have proven to be false. We’re seeing consolidation as the voters get more familiar with the candidates. Carson, Cruz, and especially Fiorina have some strong post-debate momentum. Yet, we’re still very early in the process and history has proven that early leaders can fall.” 

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 3,567 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2%. The total may not equal exactly 100% due to rounding. The polls were conducted on August 21-22 using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The poll was conducted exclusively for One America News Network. See www.oann.com/pollnational....

One America News Network operates production studios and news bureaus in California and Washington, DC. For more information on One America News Network, please visit www.OANN.com." http://www.oann.com/pollresults/...http://www.oann.com/trump-breaks-new-ceiling-in-national-gop-poll/. No link to actual poll. No mention of party or demographics. Image above from One America News Network.


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Donald Trump triple nearest competitor in latest New Hampshire poll, Trump 35%, Jeb Bush 7%. Trump leads in both men and women and across ideologies, Aug. 21-24, 2015 (Fri-Mon)-Public Policy Polling

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8/25/15, "Trump Way Ahead in New Hampshire; Sanders Leads Clinton," Public Policy Polling

"PPP's new New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump in the strongest position of any poll we've done anywhere since he entered the race."...

Donald Trump 35%
John Kasich 11%
Fiorina 10%
Jeb Bush 7%
Scott Walker 7%
Ben Carson 6%
Christie 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rubio 4%
Paul 3%

"Trump laps the Republican field with 35% to 11% for John Kasich, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 7% each for Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, 6% for Ben Carson, 4% each for Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, and 3% for Rand Paul. Candidates falling outside the top ten in the state are Rick Perry at 2%, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal all at less than 1%....

“This is by far the best we’ve found Donald Trump doing anywhere during his entire surge,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If anything he just seems to be getting stronger as the campaign rolls on."...
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Tea Party voters (44%), 
men (39%), 
conservatives (36%)
voters who are most concerned about electability (35%), 
both younger voters and seniors (at 34% with each), 
evangelicals (32%), 
moderates (29%)
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Trump has a 56/32 favorability rating and he also leads when you match him with the other Republican hopefuls head to head....

More are concerned that their candidate can beat the democrat in the general election (51%) than they are about a candidate who is "most conservative on the issues (30%):"

"Q24 When it comes to the Republican nominee for President are you more concerned with having the candidate who is the most conservative on the issues, or the one who has the best chance of beating a Democrat in the general election?  
...30% More concerned with having the candidate who is the most conservative on the issues
...51% More concerned with having the candidate who has the best chance of beating a Democrat in the general election

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...19% Not sure." 
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Gender: (no page numbers):





























Public Policy Polling surveyed 436 usual Republican primary voters and 370 usual Democratic primary voters from August 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the Republicans is +/-4.7% and for the Democrats it’s +/-5.1%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet."



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