Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Scientists in NOAA 2012 report say sea level rise is less than half rate claimed by UN IPCC, Indian Ocean continues to show net loss. This means the Maldives can't be sinking due to rising sea levels

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June 2012 NOAA report: The Budget of Recent Global Sea Level Rise 2005–2012"

(p. 7): "Sea level budget"...(Jan. 2005-Dec. 2011)

"The above numbers represent the globally averaged changes in sea level and have magnitudes on the order of millimeters per year. The regional patterns of sea level change, however, are many times larger and can be extremely complex. Steric sea level [thermal expansion] change is the dominant contributor to the spatial trend patterns observed for total sea level (Figure 3). While the global ocean has been gaining mass from the continents during this period, the Indian Ocean continues to show a net loss of mass to the other basins (Chambers and Willis 2009)." Chart below on page 8 in millimeters:







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12/11/12, "NOAA 2012 report finds sea levels rising at less than half the rate claimed by the IPCC,"
Hockey Schtick

"NOAA 2012 report finds sea levels rising at less than half the rate claimed by the IPCC. According to the latest NOAA sea level budget, global sea levels rose at only 1.1 - 1.3 mm/year from 2005-2012, which is less than half of the rate claimed by the IPCC [3.1 mm/yr] and is equivalent to less than 5 inches per century. Contrary to alarmist claims,

sea level rise decelerated over the 20th century, has also decelerated since 2005, and there is no evidence of any human influence on sea levels.

The report compares sea-level rise calculated from two different methods

1) satellite altimetry and  

2) ARGO measurements of the steric [thermal expansion] component + GRACE measurements of ocean mass. 

The rate of sea level rise using the 2nd method [ARGO + GRACE] shows a sea level rise of only 0.2 {ARGO] + 0.1 [GRACE] = 0.3 mm/yr. Only by adding on a relatively large and highly questionable GIA adjustment [based on a model] of 0.9 mm/yr to the GRACE data do the two estimates come close to agreement. Following this questionable GIA adjustment, the ARGO + GRACE estimate is 1.1± 0.8 mm/yr as compared to the satellite altimetry estimate of 1.3 ± 0.9 mm."...via Tom Nelson

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Maldives Islands in Indian Ocean




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