Friday, March 29, 2013

2013 US corn crop to be highest acreage since 1936, record in 6 states-USDA

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3/28/13, "USDA: Highest Corn Acreage Since 1936 Expected," AP, David Pitt, via ABC News

"Farmers intend to plant 97.3 million acres of corn this year, the most since 1936, the USDA's spring planting survey said Thursday.

The overall corn acreage forecast is up slightly from last year's 97.2 million acres and reflects a shift in where the grain is grown. Acreage in some states hit hardest by last year's drought retreated, while Southern states such as Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas are shifting cotton acres to corn

Chad Hart, an agriculture economist at Iowa State University, said Texas is a prime example. The state is changing more than 1 million acres normally planted in cotton for corn. Farmers there are in desperate need of grain to feed livestock after two years of debilitating drought, and are betting on a corn crop to replenish feed, Hart said.

Corn remains profitable, as prices are holding strong at around $7 per bushel because drought conditions left the grain in short supply. Corn stocks fell 10 percent from a year ago to 5.40 billion bushels, the lowest March stockpiles since 2003, the USDA said in a separate report Thursday.

Corn prices fell Thursday after the report was released, as it showed there was 7 percent more corn stockpiled than expected. Record corn acreage is expected in Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Oregon. Iowa, the nation's leading corn producer, will plant an estimated 14.2 million acres in corn, the same as last year. And Minnesota is up 3 percent to 9 million acres.

But the states that suffered significantly during last year's drought — the worst since the 1950s — expect to plant slightly less corn acreage: Illinois' acres are down 5 percent to 12.2 million and Nebraska corn acres are down 1 percent at 9.9 million acres.
Brad Tank, a farmer near the western Iowa town of Blencoe, said he expects to plant his normal mix of half corn and half soybeans on his 685 acres.

"I'm hoping that with winter hanging on longer than it did last year that things will be a little more toward normal," he said.

The USDA report addressed other crops, too, including soybeans. Farmers plan to plant 77.1 million acres — a small decline from 2012's 77.2 million acres but still the fourth highest on record.

Compared with last year, soybean acreage intentions are down across all of the Great Plains, with the exception of North Dakota, as drought conditions have persisted. However, increases in planted area across most of the eastern Corn Belt and parts of the Southeast nearly balance out the plains' declines.

If the estimates come to fruition the planted soybean areas in New York, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania will be the largest on record. Iowa soybean acres are expected to rise 1 percent to 9.4 million acres, while Illinois is up 4 percent to 9.4 million. Nebraska is expected to see soybeans acres fall about 6 percent to 4.7 million....

Growers in portions of the Corn Belt have had reason for optimism in recent weeks as storms pummeled the nation's midsection with snow, in some cases more than a foot deep.

As spring planting season nears, much of that has melted off, which has boosted soil moisture and raised levels of rivers that often serve as irrigation sources.

But temperatures remain below normal throughout much of the Midwest. Missouri is weathering its coldest March in at least 17 years, and frozen soil persists in east-central Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin.

The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly report said Thursday that roughly half of the continental U.S. remains in some form of drought,"...

[Ed. note: The US (Palmer) Drought Monitor
  "does not reflect snowpack." (See more below). This important fact isn't mentioned by the AP. Reuters reports the snow has so far eliminated midwest drought conditions.]
(continuing, AP): "with the most pronounced dryness lingering in the key Midwestern farm states.

Some 96 percent of Nebraska as of Tuesday was gripped by extreme or exceptional drought — the two worst classifications — as was one-fifth of Iowa and nearly two-thirds of Kansas." via Michael Savage. photo above ap, "photo from July 19, 2012, shows a corn field on a foggy morning near Springfield, Neb.The USDA is releasing its first estimate of the 2013 crop size in its spring planting report on Thursday, March 28, 2013."

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About Palmer Drought Severity Index:   
Palmer Drought Severity Index," drought.gov (scroll down)

"The PDSI is updated weekly by the Climate Prediction Center. It is based on rainfall, temperature and historic data, and is computed based on a complex formula devised by W.C. Palmer in 1965. Although the Palmer is the main drought index used by the U.S. government, it is slow to detect fast-emerging droughts, and does not reflect snowpack, an important component of water supply in the western United States."  


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Winter rain and snow have eliminated drought conditions in much of the midwest:

3/4/13, "Drought areas shrinking as snow and rain fall," Reuters

"Crop-friendly snowfall will be moving from the Northern Plains into the central and eastern Midwest overnight Monday and Tuesday, leaving up to an additional six to eight inches of snow, an agricultural meteorologist said on Monday....

Meteorologists said the significant winter rainfall and snow have so far eliminated the drought, the worst in 50 years in the United States, in an area roughly from Illinois eastward."...



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