Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Five inconvenient years left off US Arctic graphs have enabled trillions of dollars to change hands. Trillion dollar Arctic scare charts start at 1979 but in 1990 UN IPCC report unscary Arctic ice chart started at 1974

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Scary looking Arctic charts make it easier to confiscate taxpayer dollars even though there is no global warming, and even if there were the US could do nothing to stop it. China controls global CO2, US CO2 has plunged.

6/15/13,  "Ignoring Inconvenient Arctic Data," Real Science, Steven Goddard

"The 1990 IPCC report had satellite data going back much earlier than 1979, which showed that Arctic peaked in that year, and was much lower in 1974."













"www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf "

Above chart is on page 224 pdf 1990 UN IPCC Report, note (a) at top left of chart denotes Arctic.

Steven Goddard: "NSIDC likes to pretend that there is no satellite data for Arctic ice prior to 1979."











"N_05_plot.png (420×240)"

Steven Goddard: "If NSIDC used all of the available data, their scary story wouldn’t look so scary. Starting their graphs during the peak ice year is pretty dodgy."

NOAA Datasets, Colorado Edu., Northern Hemisphere"

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6/16/13, "Arctic Ice Extent Highest In A Decade," Steven Goddard

"COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut"

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The alleged Arctic melting number feeds into the sea level 'number,' which feeds into the number of billions "needed" from US taxpayers:

7/15/2011, Haggling over the sea level number is "not unlike the bargaining for the best price at the bazaar."

7/15/2011, "UN Climate Body Struggling to Pinpoint Rising Sea Levels,"
Der Spiegel, Axel Bojanowski

"The United Nations' forecast of how quickly global sea levels will rise this century is vital in determining how much money might be needed to combat the phenomenon. But predictions by researchers

  • vary wildly, and the attempt to find consensus has become fractious.
It is a number which will ultimately establish how billions in taxpayer money will be spent -- and it is one which is the subject of heated debate, both among politicians and scientists.

When the next report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is issued in two years, it will include a forecast for how high the world's oceans might rise by 2100. With 146 million people in the world currently living less than one meter above sea level, the forecast will be vital in determining how much money governments must spend on measures to protect people from
  • the rising waters and to resettle those in the most acute danger.
Eighteen scientists from 10 countries are involved in the task, and their first step is to determine which of the myriad studies relating to climate change's effect on ocean levels to consider. In the end, they are to establish a possible range, with the maximum being the most decisive -- and most contested -- number. Even more challenging, the estimates currently differ by almost five meters (16.5 feet).

The last IPCC report, which was issued in 2007, forecast an ocean level rise of up to 59 centimeters by the end of the century. Now, the UN experts must once again sift through hundreds of reports, and the haggling over their findings is not unlike the bargaining for the best price at the bazaar. On the one hand, researchers have published forecasts that are far higher than the result reported in the last IPCC report. On the other, sea level measurements have yet to prove any meaningful rise though there is agreement that they are, on global average, rising.

Outdoing each other's predictions

In recent days, the debate over the IPCC forecast has heated up. Some 4,000 experts gathered in Melbourne, Australia last week for a meeting of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). And it seems almost as though they are in competition to outdo one-another's predictions.

NASA climate researcher James Hansen, for example, warns in a paper published this month that sea levels could rise by five meters in the next 90 years -- nine times higher than the maximum cited in the last IPCC report. He insists that he has found indications that sea levels in the future could rise by as much as five centimeters per year.

Hansen, say some climatologists, is risking his reputation with such an extreme forecast. Three years ago, researchers found that a rise of over two meters per century is impossible because so much ice simply can't melt in such a short time. Furthermore, current measurements show a rise of just three millimeters per year.

An additional recent study, written by Jim Houston from the Engineer Research Center in Vicksburg, Mississippi and Bob Dean from the University of Florida in Gainsville for the Journal of Coastal Research, argues that sea levels have risen steadily for the last 100 years -- and that there has been no acceleration at all in recent years.

A reply was not long in coming. In the current issue of the Journal of Coastal Research, Stefan Rahmstorf, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research argues that Houston and Dean only included sea level calculations beginning in the 1930s. He says that if one chooses a year from the previous century, an accelerated rise can be seen.

"Rahmstorf is not alone in his belief that the sea level rise has accelerated. Data up until 1993, based on coastal measurements, show an annual rise of 1.7 millimeters. Since then, however, satellite measurements have indicated a rise of three millimeters per year.

But does that mean that water levels are rising faster? Not necessarily. Certainly the rate of increase has strengthened during the 20th century, said John Church of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. "Whether or not this is a further acceleration is not yet clear," said Church, who also leads the sea level working group at the IPCC.

The quality of the data is not enough to reach a clear conclusion, says Eduardo Zorita, from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Meterials and Coastal Research. In the last eight years, he says, the rise of the oceans has slowed -- and what the future may hold is uncertain.

While some researchers see an unusual acceleration over the last few decades, Simon Holgate, a sea level researcher with the National Oceanography Centre in Liverpool, does not. According to his study the rates of increase since 1993 have been nothing out of the ordinary. Indeed, says Guy Wöppelmann of the Université de La Rochelle in France, in the 20th century sea levels have risen with similar speed only to slow down again....

The scientists are in a dilemma: There are reasons to believe that the melting of the Greenland ice could speed up dramatically, but they won't have proof for decades to come. As such, researchers are attempting to use data from the past to make predictions as to what might happen in the future. So-called "semi-empirical studies" seek to find a connection between the air temperature and the ocean levels....

To what degree such studies might be accounted for in the new UN report is open to question. Their results could make for a much higher UN forecast when it comes to future ocean levels. And many researchers have their doubts. "The semi-empirical models have not been verified," says, for example, Neil White from CSIRO, adding it is unclear whether such comparisons reflect real occurences in nature. "In some circumstances," he adds, they "have been shown not to work."

Arriving at a forecast is made even more difficult by the fact that sea levels do not rise at the same rate across the globe. In some regions, it is rising at double the average," says Claus Böning from the Leibniz Institute. "Elsewhere, levels are even sinking, for example at some Pacific islands and in the Indian Ocean." Ocean currents are largely responsible for these differences, he and colleague Franziska Schwarzkopf recently reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters....

Given the large discrepancies in expert opinions it would appear that the 18 scientists currently working to arrive at a forecast have their work cut out for them. And unlike the glaciers on Greenland, they cannot work at a snail's pace. After all, one of the

"Correction: In a previous version of this article researcher Simon Holgate was mistakenly quoted in false context. Holgate is, in fact, not of the opinion that measuring tools could have shown an erroneous acceleration in sea levels. It is unclear whether it has risen at a higher rate or not in recent years, he said."
 

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Professor emeritus resigns from elite science society due to its promotion of the "global warming scam":

10/6/10, "Hal Lewis: My Resignation From The American Physical Society," GWPF

"It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS (American Physical Society) before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford’s book organizes the facts very well.) I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.

So what has the APS, as an organization, done in the face of this challenge? It has accepted the corruption as the norm, and gone along with it."...


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Latest global CO2 emissions: US emissions reductions negated by China:

6/10/13, "US Carbon Dioxide Emissions Fall as Global Emissions Rise," Cato.org, Paul C. 'Chip' Knappenberger
   
"Notice that the U.S. is far and away the leader in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, while China primarily is responsible for pushing global CO2 emissions higher. In fact, CO2 emissions growth in China more than offsets all the CO2 savings that we have achieved in the U.S."

 












  Chart from IEA report, p. 2 
 



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"The Arctic was uncontestably free of summertime ice 125,000 years ago"...

...without a single automobile being on the planet.




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