5/1/16, "Indiana Republican Primary Forecasts," 538.com
"According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning the Indiana primary." projects.538.com
"Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.
Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages.
The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
For the Indiana Republican primary, we’ve collected eight polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages."...(NBC WSJ Marist, ARG, Clout, YouGov, Fox News, Public Opinion Strategies, IPFW, Bellwether Research and Consulting)
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